You heard it here first: despite the fact that they were all the buzz at CES this year, tablets and e-readers are destined for obsolescence. Sadly, the fax machine may outlive them.
Here’s why:
E-readers:
The only reason e-readers exist is because it’s hard on the eyes to read text on a computer screen for long periods of time. You could argue that e-readers were invented to save paper or reduce printing and distribution costs, but if that were the main reason, then people would have been reading their books, magazines, and newspapers on their computer a long time ago. You could go read War and Peace right now, but you won’t because it would make you feel like someone is hammering rusty nails into your eyes after the first hour.
So e-readers exist because they have cool e-ink screens that are easy on your e-eyes. Great. But what is an e-reader really, besides a tablet PC with a nice e-ink screen and no web-browsing? In time, tablets will be developed with screens that are similar to e-ink, or perhaps with an “e-ink mode” that can be turned on if you want to read for a while. And then after you’re done with War and Peace you can go back to watching the latest Lady Gaga video. Cool. If I had a tablet like this, I wouldn’t have a need for an e-reader.
So, looking into my crystal ball, I see a tablet with e-ink mode killing off e-readers…so how does the tablet get killed off?
Well, let’s look at the problem that tablets solve - tablets exist because people want something small, portable, and comfortable for casual use while sitting on the couch. Yes, that’s pretty much it. The PC industry has been trying to make tablets for years, but they’ve always failed for two main reasons:
- The reason everyone acknowledges is that fully-functional PCs have always been too heavy. Only recently have we started seeing small PCs with enough horsepower to run regular old Windows, Office, Outlook, and have a few web browsers open at the same time
- The reason everyone has been ignoring (particularly on the CES show floor) is that the tablet form factor just isn’t all that functional. If you’re sitting on your couch, it’s okay to use your touchscreen tablet to web browse a little, play MP3s, watch your videos, or use Facebook. But if you’re doing any serious work on your PC like writing a letter, manipulating files, configuring complex software, using Photoshop…you will want a keyboard and mouse. The tablet form factor is great for fun stuff, not for serious stuff.
And yes, the device that solves both of these problems is the notebook. Notebooks have keyboards, pointing devices, and are getting lighter, smaller, cheaper, and more powerful by the minute.
We are already seeing people merge notebooks with tablets - HP has a pretty cool notebook called the TouchSmart tm2 (that’s right, I said “HP has a cool notebook”), which features a foldaway screen. (Not a new idea, but theirs is very slick.) Lenovo (formerly IBM) unveiled at CES a notebook with a detachable touchscreen (shown above.) The writing is on the wall, guys - notebook/tablet combos will make pure-play tablets pointless. And notebook-tablets with e-ink screens will make e-readers pointless.
The only question is how long this will take. I give it 3 years. I think the fax machine will still be around by then.
Google has been testing a new homepage lately that strips everything off the page except the search box and their logo. That’s right, no “Google Search” button, no “I’m feeling lucky” button, no global navigation at the top, and no legalese at the bottom. Note: currently only some users see this new version of the homepage.
And now, a week into the experiment, they’ve discovered that it’s freaking people out. What do you do when you see a search box with no “Search” button next to it? You probably wait a minute and wonder if the page is broken, right? Is it still loading? If you wait, will the button show up?
So what does Google do when they see they’re confusing the heck out of people? Rather than realizing that their old design was plenty intuitive already, they provide documentation explaining the new design. One of the oldest rules of interface design (for simple features) is: “If you have to explain the interface, it’s too hard.”
But now, as noted by TechCrunch and Valleywag who found two different versions of the wrecked homepage, Google has included text below their floating search box to tell you that they’re actually doing this on purpose: “Hey everyone, despite how it looks, this page isn’t broken!” Google: if you have to tell us the page isn’t broken, there’s something horribly wrong.
Rule of Product Management #675: If you’re going to post your mission on your homepage, make sure people can get behind it. Vyoom, a new “real-time” social network presents their philosophy front and center on their homepage:
We at Vyoom believe members should be rewarded for connecting and sharing with friends, family and co-workers in a real-time environment.
Excuse me, what? Why exactly should I be rewarded for chatting with my friends and family? Shouldn’t the mere activity and social interaction of sharing helpful, entertaining, or personal information with my acquaintances be reward enough? It sure is on Facebook, Twitter, email, or even in person. Why do I need to be rewarded for this? If I’m using your site because I want to be rewarded, I’m likely to overuse the site, flooding my friends and family with information they don’t want, and ultimately having them all block me and/or add me to their spam filters.
Further down on their homepage, they claim they have a “real-time” social network that lets me see what my friends are doing and customize what updates I want to see. Their meta description (shown to search engines, but not on the site) describes them as a
Social network with advanced social capabilities and true real-time data streaming in both a public and a private network all in one platform
This featureset actually sounds like it might be interesting and differentiating, so why lead with the messaging about rewarding me for communicating with friends? If you have a great new tool that will make my communications easier, lead with that. You don’t need to bribe me. If the product is that cool, I’ll use it and I’ll do your marketing for you by telling my friends. This is a classic case of a split personality site - they seem to have a cool product, but their lead pitch doesn’t even mention its strengths.
And while we’re at it, Rule of Product Management #425: Avoid underlining words that are not hyperlinks. Their homepage is riddled with underlined words that unfortunately I just can’t click on.
And you might be asking if I actually used the site…well, no. I tried - I registered, but never got my confirmation email, and you can’t use the site at all without it. I tried signing up with a different email address, and the registration form broke. Sorry guys, I’m done.
You heard it here first: despite the fact that they were all the buzz at CES this year, tablets and e-readers are destined for obsolescence. Sadly, the fax machine may outlive them.