Category Archives: Media

Whopping 40% of Twitterers still active after 30 days

The blogospehere has been all atwitter lately about Nielsen’s latest survey stating that 60% of new Twitter-ers stop using the service after one month.  Many people doubted the number and ribbed Nielsen for perhaps overlooking the fact that many Twitterers use third-party apps to access the site.  But Nielsen checked their math and they’re sticking with their original assertion: 60% of Twitterers leave the site after one month.

I suppose it might be hard to believe that a site that’s growing as fast as Twitter only retains 40% of new users for more than a month, but if you’ve ever run a user-generated content site, you’ll know that 40% retention is fantastic, and most sites would kill for retention like that.  Most users who start a WordPress blog, a Flickr account, a Delicious account, or an account on just about site, try it out for a day or two and never come back.  It’s the nature of the beast.  Further, most users are consumers, not producers, and while that trend is changing over time with the rise of the over-sharing Millennial generation, most users just don’t feel like sharing their stories, pictures, or current status with the world, so they try it out and then move on.

So congratulations, Twitter!  40% retention is awesome, so keep up the great work!

Tivo: Add an App Store NOW

Sorry for the hiatus, kids.  It’s been a wild ride the past year or so as I’ve changed jobs, gotten married, and bought an iPhone, but I’ll get back to those topics later.

Today I want to reach out to Tivo, the makers of one of my favorite devices, and ask them to please, please open an app store.  I don’t ask this only for myself, but also for the sake of the Tivo Company, as I believe an app store could save it from the subscriber stagnation and lackluster financial performance that have plagued it lately.  Here are just a few of the wins they could realize:

 

  • No other major DVR offers an app store, so it’s a perfect time to break new ground and put even more ground between themselves and other hardware-based DVRs.  We’ve seen what app stores have done for other platforms like Facebook and iPhone.
  • Newer software-based DVRs and media centers are catching up to your functionality, so let third-party developers help you stay ahead of the game.  If you give them a compelling revenue model, they will innovate and keep your device on the cutting edge, so you don’t have to.
  • As a DVR that is offered on a standard hardware platform, it should be relatively easy to give developers kits that will let them leverage the hardware.  The PC software-based media centers can’t compete on this because they need to accomodate a plethora of hardware types that users could have.
  • In the Tivo, owners already have a functioning computer sitting right there plugged into our TVs, so let third-party developers help us take advantage of its full pontential. 
If Tivo enabled such an app store, it wouldn’t be long before they would absolutely own the living room.  Here are some things I’d like to see my Tivo do…can you think of more?  
  • Stream my live and recorded shows so I can see them on other PCs or devices that aren’t connected to a Tivo (who needs a Slingobox?)
  • Email
  • Web browsing
  • Instant messaging
  • “Widgets” similar to the Yahoo/Samsung offering that could offer sports scores, stock quotes, etc.
  • More robust ways to show my media hosted on other devices on my Tivo (current Tivo methods are kludgy)
  • And of course…games
Now that’s something I’d pay for, and considering Tivo already bills me monthly, it’d be easy to add a few charges onto the bill for all those extra features I ordered.  So how about it, Tivo?

Why Google doesn’t care about Search

GoogleOver the past couple of years, it has become increasingly clear that Google is no longer in the search business. Sure, Google.com is a search engine, but the real business at Google is no longer to provide the best search engine. Its mission is no longer “to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful.â€? Google has become a pure advertising network.

First, let’s look at their history. Google search was extremely innovative for its time and there’s little argument that it delivered the best results. But Sergey and Larry just couldn’t make any money with search until they plugged in a brilliant system to display ads alongside their search results. In a world that had been dominated by “CPM� ads that gave advertisers no guarantees of a return on their advertising dollar, AdWords required that advertisers only pay for clicks, and it weighted ads based on their performance so users saw the most relevant ads. AdWords revolutionized online advertising just as Google had revolutionized online search.

So what does a company do when they have such a brilliant ad serving tool? They syndicate it. Google released AdSense to let other websites benefit from the performance-based ads that were already doing so well on Google.com, and they took a cut of every click purchased through their system. Another brilliant move.

The ads then spread to Gmail. A few paranoids complained of privacy invasion, but eventually everyone got used to ads next to their (free) email, and everything went back to normal. Google had yet another channel in which to deliver their ads, and the cash flowed in faster than their Money-Counting department could keep track of it.

So what do you do when you have more money than you know what to do with, and your founders are true tech geeks? You develop or acquire companies that do anything you consider “cool.� Have you seen the list of products that Google offers lately? If not, check it out here. Item after item, most of these make no money and have no plans of making money. Gtalk, reader, catalog search, notebook, co-op, code, calendar, docs & spreadsheets… and don’t get me started on YouTube.

But what a lot of people don’t see through the plethora of product releases and purchases is that Google’s only real business is ad serving, and they’re aggressively moving to dominate (I stop short of the word “monopolize� here) online advertising and expand their control of ad delivery into other mediums. Google is adding pay-per-action ads to AdWords which is surely devastating news to other CPA affiliate programs like Commission Junction. With their recent purchase of display advertising market leader DoubleClick, Google has gobbled up even more territory in the online advertising landscape, and now they’re moving to do the same thing by extending their AdWords architecture offline to TV ads, radio ads, and newspaper ads (so far with little success.)

One might ask, “Why is a search engine getting into TV, radio, and newspaper ads?� The answer is this: Google is no longer a search engine. They are an advertising network. Google search is simply a distribution channel for their advertising platform, just like the thousands of other sites that use AdSense. The other Google projects like Gmail, Reader, Maps, and the rest, are all either channels for Google advertising or tools to build brand loyalty.

Is this a Bad Thing? No, of course not. There’s nothing more American than trailblazing and profiting from it. But Google’s mission simply is no longer to organize the world’s information. Selling ads on TV networks, in papers, and on the radio surely has little to do with organizing information. Google’s real, updated mission is to provide the best value to advertisers and the best experience to consumers. This is a noble or at least honorable mission in itself, if not as philanthropic is their original one.

And yes, this means that all those brilliant MBAs and PhDs they’ve shipped in to Sunnyvale are pretty much just working either on new ways to deliver advertising or new venues on which to serve it. If you could figure out a way to make PhDs return 100x their salary as revenue, you’d hire them, too.

It’s a very smart move, really. Google surely realizes that their search may not always dominate. For the past few years it seems that their only updates have been to defeat Google-spammers and aggressive SEO techniques. They know someone will beat their search eventually, particularly as social search gets better. But Google knows that it doesn’t matter. They aren’t in the Search business. As long as they control the delivery of advertising, they make money. Every company they buy and every technology they develop, is either directly tied to creating ad inventory or just building loyalty to Google.

Mind you, I don’t fault Google for any of this. A company has to make money, particularly a public one. But let’s just call an ad network an ad network.

MIT Tech Review: Worst review of the Best Q&A Sites

When someone writes for a publication like MIT’s Technology Review, they have an obligation to write articles that are objective and scientifcally sound. To represent a brand like MIT, they have to observe the standards of review journalism such as creating measurable comparison criteria, applying those standards consistently, and giving consistent, even-handed treatment to their subjects. However, Wade Roush of Tech Review last month ignored all of these rules in his article What’s the Best Q&A Site?

Perhaps it was Roush’s objective to take a light-hearted look at the Social Q&A space and therefore was lax in his editorial rigor, but if that’s the case, his review should have been published on a blog somewhere, not on Tech Review, and it should have had the appropriate disclaimers. When MIT Tech Review publishes an articles with hard numbers comparing websites, that review becomes gospel for the hordes of other sites that reference it, so it had better be accurate.

I will show here why that article never should have been published by the MIT Technology Review.

Before we begin, here’s my big, fat disclaimer: I founded Answerbag, one of the subjects of the review, so I’m hardly unbiased. However, to be thorough, I will show here that Roush’s review of all of the QnA sites — not just mine — were cursory, unbalanced, and inaccurate.

I’ll start with Roush’s description of his test:

I also devised a diabolically difficult, two-part test. First, I searched each site’s archive for existing answers to the question “Is there any truth to the five-second rule?” (I meant the rule about not eating food after it’s been on the floor for more than five seconds, not the basketball rule about holding.) Second, I posted the same two original questions at each site: “Why did the Mormons settle in Utah?” and “What is the best way to make a grilled cheese sandwich?” The first question called for factual, historical answers, while the second simply invited people to share their favorite sandwich-making methods and recipes.

The five-second rule in basketball actually has nothing to do with holding, but I’ll let that one go.

I awarded each site up to three points for the richness and originality of its features, and up to three points for the quality of the answers to my three questions, for a total of 12 possible points.

Okay, so here’s the fun part: three points for “richness” and “originality” of its features – these seem like awfully vague terms to use, but it’s only 3 points out of a total 12, so I suppose it’s not that big a deal. He finishes by awarding up to 3 points for answers to each of his three questions, based on the quality of the answer. That seems fair.

Since his review starts with my site, Answerbag, I’ll dig into his review of Answerbag first.

Members get points for asking and answering questions as well as for rating other members’ questions and answers.

Somewhat true. Members can receive points for their questions and answers from other members, but they do not automatically receive points (as they do on some other Q&A systems, a difference that is key to the quality of the answers.) Also, members do not receive points for rating other members’ Q&A. But hey, he says he only had a few days to write this review, so I can’t expect him to get all the details.

He goes on to talk about our Levels system and our Widgets, but never discusses the core differences between Answerbag and other sites, such as the fact that we never close our questions to new answers or ratings on our answers. We also get no credit for pioneering video answers or image answers. We get no credit for allowing our users to sort the questions in a category by popularity so they can easily learn about a topic like “PlayStation 2 troubleshooting” or “foreclosures.” No credit for a unique profile page that lets users see all of the latest activity on the site that involves them (answers to their questions, ratings on their answers, comments on their answers, etc.) No credit for giving more power to users who have earned a lot of points on the site. Then he gives us 1 point out of 3, apparently for not having “rich” and “original” features. Ouch. Well, it’s a subjective measure, so I’ll let it go.

Is there any truth to the five-second rule? All of AnswerBag’s answers about the five-second rule pertained to basketball. Points: 0

Busted. But then, to our answer for why the Mormons settled in Utah, he has this to say:

That’s more or less in line with the best answers to this question at other sites. Points: 1

So…you’re telling me that for an answer that was just as good as the best answers on other sites, we got 1 point out of 3? Is that fair in the review guidelines set forth by MIT’s Tech Review?

To his question on “What’s the best way to make a grilled cheese sandwich?”, he says “I rated the answers to this question purely according to their mouthwateringness.” Very scientific. He received six answers, and gave Answerbag 2 points out of 3 with no explanation whatsoever. I guess they just weren’t mouthwatering enough to get the full 3 points.

Amazon’s Askville

3 points for features – he liked the mechanics of the site. Fair enough, since it was established as a subjective measure.

0/3 points for having no answers to the “five-second rule” question. Bummer.

On the Mormon question, Roush cites a couple of the answers, and then gives 2 points out of 3, with no explanation of what was wrong with the answer, or what a correct answer is.

On the grilled cheese question, he got a couple answers that “provided just the basics” as well as some that were taken from “grilledcheese-contest.com” but complains they were “not very original.” Perhaps if he wanted people to submit their own personal, original grilled cheese recipes, he should have asked for that. Poor Askville only got 1 point out of 3 here thanks to Roush not asking for what he wanted.

Live QnA

For a QnA system that is virtually identical to Yahoo’s, Askville’s, or Yedda’s, MSN gets 1 point from Roush. He complains that as users earn points for their answers on the site, they can raise up in levels but “there are no other rewards.” This was his only criticism, and Yahoo’s point system works virtually the same way. But, MS only scores 1 point from Roush. Maybe he thinks Windows crashes too much.

2/3 points for answers about the “five second rule.” No explanation of what the answers were missing to keep them from getting 3/3.

2/3 points for answers to the Mormon question, again with no explanation of what’s wrong with them.

For the grilled-cheese question, he got three answers, including one he says “sounded delicious,” but I guess it didn’t sound delicious enough. 2/3 points.

Wondir

Roush must have been approaching his deadline. He gave an overview of Wondir’s features, and then gave them 1/3 points with no explanation of what he didn’t like about it at all.

Five second rule: 0/3 points because it was very hard to find answers. Fair enough.

Mormons settling: He got “six answers, 3 of which were useful.” No explanation of what was missing. 2/3 points.

This one is great: for the grilled cheese question, he changed his question (for no apparent reason) to ask how to make a healthy grilled cheese sandwich. He got answers he considered “brief and obvious” like using wheat bread, lowfat cheese, and margarine. I have no clue what he would have considered a good answer. Those answers are the best things I could think of to make a healthy grilled-cheese sandwich; if you’re cooking something with bread, cheese, and butter, what else can you do? Yet, Roush was not satisfied, and this answer got 1/3 points. Brutal.

Yahoo Answers

Roush starts by explaining how Y!Answers has similar features to other sites. He praises their “My QnA” page, but doesn’t acknowledge that almost every other site in the comparison has a similar page. Then he seems to get excited:

One fun twist: users can choose and customize their own cartoon self-portraits, which appear alongside their questions and answers and give the site a surprisingly jaunty feel.

How much is that worth? 3/3 points. THREE POINTS. For an avatar system that anyone who’s used Yahoo (particularly Yahoo Games or Yahoo Instant Messenger) knows has been a feature of Yahoo (not Yahoo Answers) for several years. Somehow their avatars added so much to the experience that he thought Yahoo had the BEST FEATURES out of any of the other QnA sites in the review (tied with Askville.) Perhaps it’s his first time using the web?

Five second rule: This question had been asked 11 times and had 160 answers. It seems that the time it took him to find a good answer under the 11 iterations of the same question was not a hindrance – after reading through the 160 answers (yawn), he apparently liked one that referenced a show from the Discovery Channel as a source. 3/3 points. Alright.

Mormons settling in Utah: Again, Roush inexplicably changed the wording of his question, adding a bit about “why didn’t they go on to California or someplace more desolate.” (Rule #1 of doing experiements: perform the SAME experiment on every subject, Wade.) He got one “offensive” answer, four “cursory” answers, and one he considered good enough for a 2/3, again with no explanation.

Grilled cheese sandwich: This time he just searched for existing answers, giving no word on why he didn’t do this on other services, or why it was good enough to look at existing answers on Yahoo rather than testing how quickly he could get answers to a new question as he had done on other sites. He seemed to be pleased that he had to look at over 100 copies of the same question to get a recipe. Something in there must have sounded yummy to him, but he doesn’t tell us much besides the fact that he found thousands of answers. Yahoo Search returns millions of results to many queries, but that doesn’t make it the best search. Roush gives Y!Answers 3/3 points regardless.

Yedda

His evaluations of Yedda’s features culimates in “In practice, however, I couldn’t see much difference between the answers at Yedda and those at Live QnA, Yahoo Answers, or the other sites.” For being the same as those sites, Yedda only gets a 2/3. No futher explanation offered.

Five second rule: Nothing. 0/3.

Mormons: One answer that didn’t ad dress the question. He’s nice and gives Yedda a 1/3 anyway. How generous.

Grilled-cheese: He got one answer that focused on the cheese used in the sandwich. 1/3 points.

Conclusion

How this article got through MIT Tech Review’s editors is beyond me. Time and time again Roush gives random points to these sites without even saying what he liked or didn’t like about them. He never even established the “correct” answer for the five-second rule or why the Mormons settled in Utah, so we, his readers, have no basis of evaluating the answers he received. At the very least, he could have told us what was wrong with the wrong answers.

Here’s what a good review would look like: come up with a set of real, measurable criteria like: question answering time, accuracy of answers, and intuitiveness. For certain types of questions that are looking for a variety of answers, the number of answers received may be a useful metric (such as grilled-cheese recipes.) It might be nice to see a feature comparison chart of the sites in question, as well as a discussion of why those features are important. You could, perhaps, give one point per useful feature out of a fixed set of features.

Most importantly, apply these measurable standards even-handedly to every subject, and explain why they receive or don’t receive points. These are the basics.

Am I upset just because Yahoo won? No. I’m upset because the review was cursory and didn’t do justice to any of the sites involved. Maybe it was meant to be fun, to be a “jaunty” exploration of Social Q&A, but is Tech Review really the right forum for that? I’m not going to pretend I’m unbiased in the matter, but Roush’s review should not have been represented as a measure of The Best Q&A Site by a well-respected publication.

Speaking of Bubble 2.0…

According to the Wall Street Journal, Yahoo is rumored to be buying Facebook for 1 billion dollars. That’s right, 1 billion. (Full disclosure: I own stock in Yahoo.) Bambi Francisco confirms the rumor, but says a deal is still a ways off.

Why, one may ask, would Yahoo need Facebook? Perhaps they are admitting the failure of Yahoo 360. 360 was very successful in duplicating the basic features of MySpace and Facebook, but it just has no spirit, no personality of its own. Perhaps it’s because Yahoo has become so staid and stodgy and vanilla, so the trendsetters, the opinion-leaders go somewhere else to express themselves.

Further, Yahoo is trying to block out competitors. FB is rumored to be talking to MSN as well, and Yahoo certainly wouldn’t want Billy Gates to get his hands on Facebook. If Facebook is shopping itself around to the major portals, Yahoo has no choice but to throw their hat in the ring and try to place the highest bid, whether they really want Facebook or not.

I think Yahoo will showcase Facebook in an attempt to regain their sense of cool. They will leave 360 up to cater to the grandmas and Yahoos that have adopted it. If you’re on 360 now, don’t count on too many new features being added if and when this deal goes through.

What worries me is that I don’t understand is how Yahoo will ever turn a profit on FB. As a business, it would have to bring in 100 million in operating earnings (not revenue) just for Yahoo to see a 10% annual return on their investment. Can Yahoo make money on this deal, or are Bubble 2.0 economics going to their heads?

Steve Irwin, you will be missed (updated)

One part insanity, two parts Aussie accent, three parts animal lover, and six more parts insanity, and that’s what Steve Irwin, the Crocodile Hunter, was. He passed as I imagine he would have liked, doing what he loved, exploring the animal kingdom. He brought a new energy and passion for animalkind to television, and inspired and enthralled a generation of kids, and he will be sorely missed. Keep hunting that Croc in the sky, Steve!

Update: if you’d like to make a charitable donation in Steve’s memory, here is a link to his charity, Wildlife Warriors.

My orgasmic scenario

We are on the cusp of a complete paradigm shift in technology. Just as it took humanity many years to learn how to efficiently use the combustion engine to propel itself around the planet, we are just now learning what the Internet and wireless technologies can enable us to do. We’re just scratching the surface.

The perfect example of this is Tivo. I love my Tivo. And, I hate my Tivo. It’s simultaneously a quantum leap over the previous technology, and it’s still stuck in the Stone Age.

I don’t think I need to elaborate on why I love my Tivo because it’s been covered pretty extensively by a myriad of other authors.

As much as I love my Tivo, I hate how it’s so 1998. Yes, it’s pretty cool that I can stop live TV, and record it all to a massive hard drive so I can easily call it up whenever I want, but it actually is a step backwards in what it enables us as humans to do.

Back in the 80’s and 90’s, we could share TV programs with our friends by passing video cassette tapes to them. Now what do we do? The more technically savvy of us burn DVDs, but this is hardly easy for the mainstream market. Most of us ask our friends to come over so we can show them that new episode of Prison Break. We are tied to our Tivos. We’re tied to our living rooms. It sucks.

To borrow a phrase from a wise friend, here’s my orgasmic scenario – here’s how media technology should, and eventually will, work:

Tivo won’t be a box. It will be a website that records all my shows. Then, I can watch them on my couch, in my bedroom, at Jeremy’s house, and at the mall while my girlfriend tries on shoes. I won’t have to podcast it because I can download and watch video on whatever mobile device I have with me, be it a cell phone, a PDA, or a two-way super-secret wrist watch.

For that matter, all of my media will work like this. My Tool MP3s, my reruns of The Venture Brothers, my Stewie sound clips – I can listen and watch to my heart’s content from anywhere because I’ll be connected to the Internet everywhere.

I don’t want to be tied to a box in my living room. I don’t want my media held captive on hard drives – I want it whenever and wherever I want it.

The Slingbox which allows you to watch your TV from any ‘net-connected PC is a half-step in the right direction.

Of course, it isn’t Tivo’s fault that we’re in this situation. We’re held back by two major things – bandwidth, particularly for mobile devices, and the fact that most TV’s aren’t Internet-capable yet. But these are very temporary obstacles. Within a few years, every media device will be on the Internet, cell phones will have connections like cable-modems, and we’ll be free. We’ll frolic in the fields until we tire, and then we’ll sit back and watch Lost until it gets dark and we get creeped out and run back to the farm willy-nilly.

My orgasmic scenario is coming. It’s not far off. It will liberate the human race just as the automobile did. Is Tivo ready?

Wikipedia, and why it just isn’t that Important

For at least the past year now, you can’t read a story about Web 2.0 and the Internet without reading about Wikipedia. Wikipedia is a great site. It’s a great reference. It’s free.

But, it’s just not as Important (capital “I”) as people make it out to be. It’s touted as the Wisdom of Crowds or the knowledge of the masses, but after further analysis, it was found that the vast majority of the content on the site was generated by 1000 people. That’s right, just 1000. Now, who exactly are these people? Are they professors of history, biology, physics, and the other deeply technical topics they cover? Unlikely, because those people get paid to do what they do. They write books and research papers and do research, and reference primary sources. Perhaps they even write encyclopedias…

So who’s contributing to Wikipedia? Schmoes. I’m not saying these people are dumb or uneducated, but they’re…regular people. Maybe they have a few history books or other textbooks they consult (or, I hesitate to suggest, an encyclopedia). Maybe they’re some professor’s research assistants. Maybe they’re just passionate about the topic. I respect their work and their passion, but when it comes down to it, I can’t trust Wikipedia with information that absolutely has to be correct, particularly current events. It’s not a news site, and it shouldn’t try to be one. If I need to know what year Lincoln died, I’ll go to Wikipedia. But if I want to know about a topic that’s current, hotly debated or deeply technical, I will find other sources.

I do love the spirit of Wikipedia, the collective effort to document human history and science, but we’ve seen more and more incidents where it has been abused by unscrupulous users. You never know when something isn’t quite as impartial as it seems or is a deliberate effort to smear someone. Truthiness indeed.

What’s the solution for Wikipedia? It seems that to control quality, they will need to limit their contributors to a small, trusted group. When you rely on a small, trusted group, however, you often need to pay them, and what will you have then?

And lastly, I’ll point out another disturbing trend in journalism.

BusinessWeek: People for MBA’s

If you haven’t read BusinessWeek’s latest piece of Silicon Valley fluff, take a few seconds to skim it. Just make sure you don’t pay too close attention, because much of it is overblown, the facts are dodgy, and in general, they’re playing the Big Media game by selling their magazine with hype. Where have all the real journalists gone?